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Arizona’s 2026 monsoon season could bring more rain than the last few years. Weather experts from the National Weather Service and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University say warmer temperatures and changing ocean patterns may help increase monsoon moisture across the state. However, they also warn that conditions can change quickly throughout the summer. Even though northern Arizona saw near-normal winter precipitation, the region experienced record warmth and lower snowpack levels. As a result, fire danger, dry lightning, flash flooding, and strong thunderstorm winds remain concerns heading into summer. Meteorologists say residents should stay prepared by monitoring forecasts, enabling weather alerts, and avoiding flood-prone areas during storms. Experts also explained how El Niño conditions could impact Arizona weather later this year. A stronger El Niño pattern may increase the chance for wetter conditions during fall and winter. In the meantime, monsoon season continues to bring dramatic lightning, colorful sunsets, and much-needed rain to the Southwest. Safety and preparation remain important as storm activity increases across Arizona.

The 2025 Arizona Monsoon Forecast was made possible by Heritage Roofing